Much ado about nothing
The media is making a big deal out of nothing (what’s new). This time their pet publicity project is all about voter dissatisfaction and “resurgence” of the Democratic Party in politics in the state. I decided to take a look for myself and see what was really happening. Looks like it’s really much ado about nothing. Here’s the data set. Let me give you a quick run down of the details.
- House candidate numbers are exactly the same as in 2006. Democrats do have a whopping 10 more candidates that have filed (five of those are vying for Carl Duckworth’s seat. Remember that Duckworth is a Democrat himself) versus 2006. Republicans have seven fewer than in 2006.
- Senate candidate numbers are up, but Democrats filing for senate seats is exactly the same as in 2006, while Republican candidate filings more than doubled.
- State board filings more than doubled for 2008. These are non-partisan seats, so you don’t really know party affiliation.
Bottom line, the area of greatest dissatisfaction looks like the state board of education not with state legislators.
Another little number I looked into was legislators that opposed vouchers (since vouchers are the real reason we are seeing this resurgence, right?) to see if they were being challenged by their own party. The major media have only highlighted ‘interesting’ races where pro-voucher supporters are being challenged.
Here’s what the numbers say. There are five ‘anti-voucher’ races, 2 Democrat and 3 Republican where those who voted against vouchers are being challenged from within their own party.
I think for me this just represents the media looking for a way to shape opinion when the facts don’t necessarily tell the same story, but given the Tribs recent article on polar bears dying (when again the numbers tell the opposite), these folks don’t seem to worried about the facts, but rather being propoganda rags.
Jesse Harris said,
March 19, 2008 @ 9:25 pm
It does appear that the data doesn’t match the hype. The real story appears to be that the Constitution Party has fielded a lot more total candidates this year than in 2006. At that rate, it would only be a few election cycles before they have candidates in almost every race.
Jeremy said,
March 19, 2008 @ 9:37 pm
I think this is a fair point. Thank you for going to the trouble of looking at what the numbers actually show.
I’m curious if any organization (including the parties themselves) keeps track of pricinct caucus participation numbers. That might be a better indicator of whether or not there really is an increase in interest regarding statewide and local politics.
jasonthe said,
March 19, 2008 @ 9:52 pm
I’d have to agree with your numbers and that it says little about citizen sentiment in the upcoming elections.
But since you mention the word “propaganda,” it is worth mentioning that your claim of “the greatest area of dissatisfaction” seems quite disingenuous, considering the number of filings for board positions is a direct result of previous supporters of the failed (and publicly rejected, remember) voucher proposition making great efforts to recruit candidates for the positions.
Special interest efforts, while often effective, do not accurately reflect public sentiment, nor levels of “dissatisfaction.”
Connor said,
March 19, 2008 @ 10:01 pm
I’m always amused when party leaders and media pundits freak out over things like this. This has been recurring throughout various states with GOP leadership up in arms over “Ron Paul revolutionaries” infiltrating the ranks - showing up at the caucuses, running for positions, changing parts of the platform and such.
What these people disregard, it would seem, is that this is the way politics works. People rally around a cause, work within the system to promote it, and galvanize their forces to support it.
Jesse is right about the Constitution Party in Utah. I myself was approached by a party official requesting that I run for office. They’re organizing quite well, and while they will probably lose many of the races in this election, they are gaining name recognition and increasing support and party numbers. I hope CP candidates win a few seats and shake things up some.
I’m just crossing my fingers, hoping that Super Dell won’t switch parties one more time and land in the CP. Yuck.
Lyall said,
March 19, 2008 @ 10:03 pm
Jeremy,
Point well taken. I agree that caucus attendance and, further out, primary voting may give us a much better feel of real or perceived discontent.
Jason,
Two comments on the propoganda issue. Even if as you suggest pro-voucher folks are recruiting candidates, it appears their dissatisfaction is more real than the anti-voucher dissatisfaction if we measure their ability to mobolize candidates to take the plunge. Second, my post says “looks like” I did not say that it is. Perhaps word choice could have been a little better but it hardly qualifies as disinenuous.
Connor said,
March 19, 2008 @ 10:20 pm
Lyall - unrelated to this post, but it looks like your server is six hours off, as noted by the timestamps on the comments. FYI.